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A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is prepared.

That is the message from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Institutions Unprepared

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."

Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue

The pair have studied the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.

"What concerns everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a national vote.

Insufficient Substantive Discussion

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.

"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or activists want to engage with even the basics. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the publication, neither author endorses unification or the status quo. Each composes two essays that seek neutrality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and social figures, previous instances and constitutional models.

Debates range over flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and provoke discussion.

"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.

"The Irish government must determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.

Possibility of Referendum

The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"

Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he said. "One side will win here and the other side will in the end not succeed but both parties has got important lessons to acquire from the other's positions."

Appeal for Broader Discussion

Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."