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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that a framework for a peace deal developed with US officials could be finalised in a matter of days. Afterward, American envoys are expected to submit the documentation to the Russian leadership.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Major Headway, But Key Hurdles Remain

Following extensive talks in Berlin, American negotiators indicated on Monday that approximately “90%” of the contentious issues between Russia and Ukraine had been settled. Although the outlook appears positive, the path to ending the conflict remains uncertain, particularly because Russia's absence from the ongoing discussions.

Early Tuesday morning, Zelenskyy said that the American legislature is expected to consider defense assurances and that a complete package of agreements could be prepared “imminently.” He added that, the United States would engage in discussions with Russian representatives, leading to summit-level talks possibly this coming weekend.

Defense Assurances and International Support

“The plan involves five key agreements. Several concern security guarantees: legally binding, that is, voted on and endorsed by the US Congress,” Zelenskyy remarked to the press. He clarified that these assurances would “mirror the collective defense clause” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

On Monday, US officials did not provide precise information regarding the probable makeup of the defense package or the consequences if Russia sought to capture more land after a peace deal. They did, however, confirm that the U.S. has no plans to place boots on the ground in Ukraine.

Leaders from the UK, France, Germany and several additional European nations issued a joint statement that troops from a “coalition of the willing” could “help with the regeneration of Ukrainian military capabilities, in securing Ukrainian airspace, and in supporting safer seas, including through conducting operations within its territory.”

They stopped short, however, of proposing these measures would constitute assurances matching Nato’s article 5. Furthermore, there is scant indication that Russia is near agreeing to the type of package being negotiated between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Moscow's Stance and Territorial Dispute

The following day, the Russian government said it had not received the details of the plans for security assurances. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, asserted that Russia would not agree to forces of NATO member states being stationed in Ukrainian territory “no matter what.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian negotiators and US negotiators remains the territorial question. A key demand involves Ukraine ceding the areas of the Donbas it currently controls, while Ukraine prefers to maintain the current front lines. “We are discussing the land dispute. You know, it is a central problem. Currently, there is no consensus on it yet,” the president remarked after the Berlin talks.

American mediators, headed by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has suggested a middle-ground proposal. Under this plan would see Ukraine pull back, but Russia would not move forward, with the resulting zone becoming “a free economic zone.” Russia has indicated it could use police and national guard formations instead of the army in such an area, suggesting it would still seek to control the territory.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘special economic zone’ is not under the control of Russia. Neither de jure nor de facto do we accept Donbas – its currently occupied areas – as belonging to Russia. Absolutely,” said President Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Potential Outcomes

The way ahead is uncertain how the two sides will proceed on the territorial issue. Zelenskyy has earlier mentioned that a negotiated arrangement like a free economic zone could be theoretically possible if the Ukrainian people voted for it in a national vote. The critical stumbling block is expected to arise when the plans are put to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has given no sign he is prepared to concede on his military objectives.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will end up with exactly what we are experiencing on our flight right now – instability,” commented the president, making the statement as his aircraft departed from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will apply sanctions pressure and supply more weapons if they reject the deal. In my view, that would be a reasonable expectation from us to the United States,” he added.